Open-weight AI models keep pace with frontier labs, defying consolidation predictions
Transformative AIInstead, an expanding roster of companies, American, Chinese and otherwise, is publishing competitive open models, often alongside novel licensing structures that hint at the commercial and geopolitical stakes involved.
The most closely watched debut came from Thinking Machines, the startup founded by former OpenAI chief technology officer Mira Murati, which launched its first model, Inkling, on July 15, 2026, with open weights, using a Mixture-of-Experts design with 975 billion total parameters but only 41 billion active per query. The company itself was candid about its limitations: its own blog post states that Inkling is "not the strongest overall model available today, open or closed," and according to TechCrunch, Thinking Machines is marketing Inkling less as a finished product than as a starting point, something for organizations to fine-tune themselves through Tinker, the company's model-customization platform. A smaller sibling, Inkling-Small, followed with a quarter of the parameters while matching or beating the flagship on some reasoning and coding benchmarks, according to the company's own release notes.
The most striking release by scale came from Moonshot AI. According to Unite.AI, Moonshot AI published the full model weights for Kimi K3 on July 27, 2026, eleven days after the Beijing lab launched the model as a hosted service, and the model is a mixture-of-experts model with 2.8 trillion total parameters, of which 104 billion activate on any given token, which Moonshot describes as the world's first open model in the 3-trillion-parameter class. The licensing terms have drawn particular scrutiny. As VentureBeat reported, the custom terms mean if the Licensee or any of its affiliates operates a Model as a Service business, and the aggregate revenue of the Licensee and its affiliates exceeds 20 million US dollars in total over any consecutive 12 months, the Licensee must enter into a separate agreement with Moonshot AI before using the Software or its derivative works for any commercial purpose. Independent benchmarking from Artificial Analysis placed the model just behind the leading closed systems from Anthropic and OpenAI, according to MLQ News.
Elsewhere, Tencent's Hy3 moved to the permissive Apache 2.0 licence from a more restrictive predecessor, while Poolside's Laguna-S-2.1 shipped under a bespoke licence intended to give firmer legal footing to open model deployments, alongside detailed evaluation transparency. DeepSeek pushed out an updated V4-Flash model, and Meituan's LongCat-2.0 stood out as the first substantial model trained entirely on Chinese Ascend accelerators rather than Nvidia or Huawei chips, a detail that speaks to Beijing's push to reduce dependence on foreign semiconductor supply chains.
Commentators cited in the original roundup argue that revenue-gated licences of the kind Moonshot has adopted could give Washington new legal levers to restrict American firms from doing business with Chinese AI developers, since such terms create formal commercial relationships that regulators could target. Taken together, the releases suggest that the frontier of open-weight capability is being pushed forward by a widening set of players rather than narrowing toward a few dominant labs, a dynamic with direct bearing on how governments think about export controls, safety obligations and market concentration in advanced AI.